AGP Executive Report

Haze Emergency: Indonesia says it will accept foreign firefighting help as forest fires intensify, with smoke darkening skies and disrupting schools across the region. Singapore is examining companies potentially responsible for fires, while Malaysian lawmakers are calling for a permanent ASEAN response team. Bali Fuel Crunch: Hundreds protested after a tanker delay triggered hours-long queues at petrol stations; officials say the shipment should cover the island’s needs for about a week. Trade and Jobs: Trade Expo Indonesia is targeting US$17.5 billion in deals, as the country seeks new export markets and a better-balanced trade relationship with Tanzania. Indonesia recorded a US$7.25 billion trade surplus in January-August, but faces a stark graduate jobs gap: 1.3 million university graduates were unemployed in May. Food Research: Jakarta welcomed China’s proposal for a joint rice research centre in South Papua, aimed at improving yields and supporting local economic development.

Wildfire Emergency: Indonesia has deployed nearly 17,000 people to fight fires in South Sumatra and Central Kalimantan, where hazardous haze and poor visibility are hampering aerial operations. Hotspots across priority provinces nearly doubled to 294; officials plan a dry-ice trial in Palembang and cloud-seeding flights from Banjarmasin. Bali Fuel Disruption: The province has ordered three days of work from home, Oct. 15–17, to ease fuel queues after bad weather and a delayed tanker disrupted deliveries. Disaster Oversight: The KPK has arrested five people, including the disaster agency chief’s brother, over suspected corruption in emergency procurement. Separately, police named nine individuals as corporate suspects in fire investigations. Energy Investment: Seadrill won a contract worth about $420 million to deploy a drillship for an unnamed Indonesian operator, with work expected to start in 2027.

Wildfire Haze: Indonesia says it aims to put out forest fires within a month, as Singapore considers possible legal action and residents in fire-hit West Kalimantan sue for clean air. Jakarta has ruled out declaring a national disaster for now. Investment & Budget: The government is courting private capital and touting fiscal discipline, including a pledge to keep the budget deficit below 3% of GDP. Its 2027 budget targets 6% growth; China has praised Indonesia’s investment climate after US$10.2 billion in industrial projects were inaugurated in Central Halmahera. Bali Fuel: Long queues followed delivery delays caused by bad weather and a tanker problem. Officials say supplies are being replenished and describe the disruption as a distribution issue, not a fuel shortage. Digital Trade: Bank Indonesia recorded 200 cross-border QRIS payments during the Mandalika MotoGP, while an Indonesian company has secured a US$15 million deal to help build a cassava-processing plant in Cameroon.

Forest Fires: Indonesia aims to extinguish fires within a month and is assessing foreign firefighting offers as haze spreads across the region. In West Kalimantan, residents have sued President Prabowo and 26 officials, alleging government failures violated their right to clean air; the fires have also affected hundreds of wild animals. Public Mood: A new SMRC survey found confidence that Indonesia is moving in the right direction has fallen to 47.7%, from 83% when Prabowo took office in 2024. Growth Target: Nobel laureate James Robinson says the government’s 8% annual growth goal is possible but unusually difficult, requiring strong institutions. Trade and Jobs: Indonesia is exploring Chinese partnerships to process mungbeans and seaweed locally; companies presented trade contracts worth about US$19.6 million, while investment and technology-transfer opportunities remain under discussion.

Wildfires and Haze: Smoke from fires has spread across much of Indonesia and into Malaysia, Singapore and Papua New Guinea. The government aims to put out the blazes within a month and plans to remove a rule allowing small-scale land clearing by fire. Komnas HAM is calling for public disclosure of investigations and enforcement against suspected offenders. Fiscal Policy: Indonesia says it will keep the budget deficit below 3% of GDP; the deficit stood at 1.24% at the end of September. Startups and Research: The government is targeting Rp1 trillion in startup funding this year, while BPOM has teamed up with 187 universities to build a domestic advanced-therapy medicine ecosystem. Disaster Readiness: Indonesia is testing mosque loudspeakers as earthquake-warning alarms, adding a new use for community infrastructure.

Wildfire Emergency: Indonesia has deployed 60,177 personnel to fight fires in six provinces, with Central Kalimantan and South Sumatra the main hotspots. Smoke has spread across the region, while fires threaten peatlands and wildlife habitat. ASEAN foreign ministers plan to discuss the cross-border haze next month. Tax and Business: New ecommerce and influencer taxes, alongside a planned sugary-drink levy, are part of the government’s push to raise revenue. Analysts say delayed refunds are disrupting companies’ cash flow. Banking: South Korea’s Shinhan Financial Group has created an Indonesian holding company, bringing its banking, financing and securities operations under one roof as foreign lenders expand amid industry consolidation.

Global Health: Indonesia has nominated Health Minister Budi Gunadi Sadikin to lead the WHO, saying his bid would advance a fairer global health system for developing nations. Wildfire Crisis: President Prabowo has made Tanjung Puting National Park a firefighting priority as blazes and haze hit Sumatra and Kalimantan. Fifty helicopters remain on standby, though smoke hampers flights, and the government plans to suspend or revoke more companies’ licences. Local Business: The government introduced four measures to widen MSME and cooperative access to energy-sector work, including mining permits and community oil wells. Investment: Indonesia and Egypt plan a joint investment fund and aim to lift bilateral trade to $5 billion by 2030. Separately, Pertamina and Medco are taking stakes in Eni-operated oil and gas assets off East Kalimantan. Jakarta: The city plans to launch TransJakarta boat services in June 2027, with its governor also proposing eventual air transport.

Indonesia–Egypt Ties: President Prabowo Subianto and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi agreed to expand economic, education, defence and maritime cooperation, with a goal of lifting bilateral trade to US$5 billion by 2030. Haze Response: Indonesia briefed Malaysia on efforts to tackle fires in Sumatra and Kalimantan as smoke worsens across the region. Digital Investment: Data-centre firms are urging clearer, coordinated approvals for environmental, building, water and energy permits, saying predictable rules are key to attracting investment. Cost of Living: Chicken prices rose 7.8% in the first nine months of 2026, outpacing workers’ wage growth of 4.9%.

Indonesia–Egypt Ties: President Prabowo and Egypt’s Abdel Fattah el-Sisi agreed to pursue a trade pact and joint investment fund, while expanding education, defence and maritime cooperation. They also condemned Israeli settlements and called for de-escalation in the Middle East. Forest Fires: Indonesia is testing a Brazilian fire-suppressant liquid in South Sumatra and Kalimantan as blazes worsen haze and disrupt livelihoods in Palembang. Mandalika MotoGP: Marco Bezzecchi won the Indonesian Grand Prix as Jorge Martin reclaimed the championship lead; the event also boosted sales for 114 local small businesses. Cultural Repatriation: Indonesia and the Netherlands agreed to return more than 30,000 historical objects, including ancestral remains, with joint research planned on other collections. Technology Investment: Indonesia is positioning Bali’s Kura-Kura special economic zone as a hub for AI and semiconductor research, including projects with China’s Tsinghua University.

Diplomacy: Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi arrived in Jakarta ahead of Sunday’s talks with President Prabowo Subianto. The leaders are expected to sign agreements on visas, fisheries and statistics, and a plan to deepen their strategic partnership. Economic Policy: Indonesia is targeting 6% growth in 2027 while cushioning household spending. Fourth-quarter support includes rice aid for 33.24 million people and Rp300,000 monthly wage subsidies for 13.3 million workers; the government is also planning vocational training and wider access to bank accounts. Haze: Fires in Sumatra and Kalimantan sent smoke across the region, pushing Singapore’s air quality into the “very unhealthy” range and prompting warnings ahead of the Formula One Grand Prix. Development: Indonesia has asked the Asian Development Bank for more support for education, social infrastructure and digital infrastructure as it pursues its 2045 development goals. MotoGP: Marc Marquez won the Mandalika sprint to take the championship lead, as Aprilia riders faltered.

Press & AI: ASEAN media leaders adopted a declaration in Bali urging stronger copyright protection for journalism as digital platforms and AI reshape the industry. Public Funds: Five suspects are headed to trial over alleged graft in electric-motorcycle purchases for Indonesia’s free-meal program; investigators estimate state losses at Rp863.8 billion. Wildfires: Fires across Borneo and Sumatra are putting orangutans at risk, with rescuers treating animals injured or stranded in scorched forests and haze. Jakarta Transport: Transjakarta users say any planned fare increase from January must come with better service and remain affordable. Energy Ties: Indonesia and Azerbaijan are pursuing five cooperation projects, including oil and gas ventures involving SOCAR and Pertamina. Mandalika: Marc Marquez won Saturday’s Indonesian GP sprint to take the MotoGP championship lead, four points ahead of Jorge Martin.

Haze Crisis: Borneo residents have taken Indonesia’s government to court over months of fires and choking smoke, as Malaysia closes schools amid worsening haze. Economic Policy: Indonesia is seeking health investment to support its 8% growth target and aims to raise manufacturing’s share of GDP above 20%. The government is also drafting a decree to transfer Whoosh high-speed rail shares to the Finance Ministry. Industry: Indonesia has exported its first electric-vehicle batteries, while plans to replant 9,000 hectares of coconut plantations are set for 2027. Mandalika MotoGP: Raul Fernandez claimed his first MotoGP pole at the Indonesian Grand Prix, with championship leaders Marc Marquez and Jorge Martin qualifying fourth and fifth.

Haze and Accountability: West Kalimantan residents have taken the government to court over fires burning for more than three months, alleging failures in prevention and response. Smoke has prompted Malaysia to close schools for about two million students and pushed Singapore’s air quality into unhealthy territory. Markets and Public Finance: State fund Danantara says it may buy Indonesian stocks during temporary selloffs if prices are attractive, and could invest another US$1 billion by year-end. Non-tax state revenue rose 41.7% to Rp492.3 trillion through September, helped by central-bank surplus transfers, forest fines and higher commodity prices. Tourism: Indonesia rose to 23rd in the World Economic Forum’s 2026 travel index. Tourism investment jumped 56% in 2025 to Rp73.56 trillion, though the government says safety, infrastructure, hygiene and digital readiness need work. Industry and Nusantara: Airbus, AirNav Indonesia and ITB are partnering on training and research to strengthen Indonesia’s aerospace sector. Nusantara will host the Borneo Economic Forum in 2027, aimed at attracting investment and building cross-border business ties.

Mandalika MotoGP: The Indonesian Grand Prix weekend opened Friday with practice at the Mandalika circuit, as the government targets Rp5 trillion in economic impact from the event. Digital Business: Meta has immediately barred TikTok parent ByteDance from advertising on Facebook and Instagram in Indonesia and six other markets, escalating competition for users and ad revenue. Industrial Push: President Prabowo launched US$10.2 billion in downstreaming projects in North Maluku, while Indonesia weighs a pause on new nickel smelters amid oversupply. Haze Crisis: Forest fires in South Sumatra cut visibility below 300 metres and disrupted 30 flights at Palembang airport; Malaysia’s prime minister has raised concerns with Prabowo over the worsening haze.

Haze and Fires: Indonesia’s worsening wildfires are choking Jambi, where haze has cut visibility to about 500 metres and hit tourism businesses. Smoke has also crossed into Singapore and Malaysia, renewing pressure for stronger fire prevention. Industrial Policy: President Prabowo launched US$10.2 billion in downstreaming projects in North Maluku as the government weighs a pause on new semi-finished processing plants, aiming to capture more value at home. Public Finances: The government is ordering spending cuts to keep the deficit in check amid global uncertainty. Health Services: Plans for 2027–29 include renovating 8,001 community health centres, building 1,988 and upgrading 441 regional hospitals, with officials stressing the need for enough trained staff. Mandalika: This weekend’s MotoGP is projected to generate nearly Rp5 trillion in economic activity, supporting local workers and small businesses as hotel occupancy near the circuit approaches full capacity.

Wildfire Crisis: West Kalimantan civil society groups have sued national and local officials over recurring peat fires and haze, saying authorities failed to prepare despite El Niño warnings. Researchers link the fires to falling peat water tables, while smoke also poses risks to aviation. Nickel Push: Prabowo travelled to Central Halmahera to launch 11 projects worth $10.2 billion, including Indonesia’s first EV-battery exports, as the government seeks to add value to domestic resources. Finance: Fintech firm Cicil will acquire a 30% stake in listed Pool Advista Finance, expanding beyond peer-to-peer lending; the deal’s value is still to be assessed and regulatory steps remain. AI Policy: Indonesia backs “safety by design” for AI, urging developers to build safeguards in from the start. Military Leadership: Parliament and the government denied receiving a presidential letter on replacing TNI commander Agus Subiyanto, saying the decision rests with Prabowo. Railways: Indonesia plans 14,000 kilometres of new and reactivated tracks by 2045, requiring an estimated Rp1,100 trillion to Rp1,200 trillion in investment.